Improvement of anti-crisis diagnostics of agricultural enterprises

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to improve anti-crisis diagnostics of an agro-industrial enterprise. The content analysis of interpretations of the crisis revealed a two-sided attitude towards crisis situations: as a negative and a positive phenomenon. The negative attitude towards the crisis is related to its destructive impact on the company's activities; and the positive one is based on the understanding of the crisis as an objective process related to the development of the system.

It is substantiated that the process has three periods: the pre-crisis period (latent crisis), the period of acute crisis and the period of chronic crisis (acute insurmountable crisis).

In modern conditions, the prevention of macro- and microeconomic problems is carried out through anti-crisis management, the mechanism of which is proposed in the article. The main task of the proposed mechanism is the anti-crisis diagnosis of the enterprise and the implementation of the necessary measures of anti-crisis management in order to prevent or eliminate crisis situations and phenomena.

The article provides an anti-crisis diagnosis of an agro-industrial enterprise according to traditional discriminant models. Despite the wide spread of MDA models (multiplicative discriminant analysis) of bankruptcy forecasting, the effectiveness of their use in domestic conditions remains quite questionable due to obtaining contradictory results with the same set of indicators for the use of different MDA models, incomplete or partial consideration of domestic macroeconomic and industry specifics, not taking into account objective domestic business practices, etc.

Given the above difficulties, recently there has been a decline in the use of MDA models for assessing the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises, and logit models are increasingly preferred.

The article considers the main logit-regression models of bankruptcy forecasting, gives their characteristics and a brief analysis of the entire bankruptcy forecasting approach using the logistic regression apparatus, highlights the main advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibilities of applying logit models for bankruptcy forecasting in domestic conditions. The probability of bankruptcy of an agro-industrial enterprise was diagnosed according to the logit models of J. A. Olson, Altman-Sabato, Ju-Ha, Tehong, Zhdanovand Lina-Piesse.

Prospects for further research in this direction are the development of a logit model taking into account the specifics of Ukrainian business.