Fractal properties of managerial efficiency as a basis for forecasting combined strategic scenarios for the development of machine-building enterprises based on the processes of diversification and integration
Abstract. To select the most appropriate method for forecasting the level of enterprise development depending on changes in its operating conditions, it is necessary to perform a fractal analysis, which will determine the nature and causes of changes in the time series of enterprise performance.
The aim of the article is to determine the fractal properties of managerial efficiency as a basis for forecasting combined strategic scenarios for the development of machine-building enterprises based on the processes of diversification and integration.
The paper presents a fractal analysis of the level of business process rationalization of the representative enterprise (synchronicity coefficient) as a basis for ensuring the effectiveness of its management efficiency during 2009–2018. The Harold Edwin Hirst method (R / S analysis) was used to analyze such time series. Hearst's method allows analyzing time series, distinguishing between random and fractal time series, as well as drawing conclusions about the presence of non-periodic cycles, long-term memory, etc. Fractal analysis of the coefficient of synchronicity of the representative enterprise, which belongs to the cluster with a high level of development, allowed to determine that the studied series is persistent and, accordingly, the further trend of change of this indicator will be growth. To reduce the value of the coefficient of synchronicity, which indicates an increase in the imbalance of existing business processes, which leads to the loss of the possibility of increasing the additional effect required for strategic development of the enterprise in modern conditions, management decisions on diversification and integration. The calculations of the expediency of applying the chosen direction of development to reduce the coefficient of synchronicity confirmed the effectiveness of management decisions.
Key words: fractal analysis; managerial efficiency; diversification and integration development; synchronicity factor; prognostication; machine-building enterprise.